September 1st is the start of meteorological fall, and if you really enjoy fall weather, it may get here sooner than it typically does. The recent below average temperatures and precipitation look to roll on throughout the month of September, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
We don't have to say 'farewell' to warmer, or even summer-like, weather yet. This outlook means that there may be many more cooler than usual days than warmer than usual ones. A good example is the forecast for the holiday weekend and the weather following it. Labor Day may be into the middle 80's, but just 2 days later, temperatures may be close to 20 degrees colder and in the middle to upper 60's for highs.
As for the outlook on the entire fall season (September, October, and November), the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting warmer than average temperatures, and near average precipitation. We typically get a total of 8.6" of precipitation during the 3 fall months. Snowfall (which usually doesn't arrive until November) may end up below average, since the weather may be warmer than usual.
As for the winter season, which is always a popular topic of discussion, the Climate Prediction Center currently has a near average winter. This may and will likely change, so check back in a few months, closer to the winter season!
The reasoning behind a near average forecast is that El Niño and La Niña will likely not play a role this winter. Both of those phenomena have a major effect on the winter conditions, so without either steering our winter one way or the other, we look to stay near average for now. Persistent harsh cold and/or mountains of snow could still happen, but they aren't as likely, for now. Winter, for reference, typically produces 29" of snow for Rockford.
- Chief Meteorologist Alex Kirchner